DAILY ANALYSIS 07 september 2022

  • US indices finished yesterday’s trading lower. S&P 500 dropped 0.41%, Dow Jones moved 0.55% lower and Nasdaq declined 0.74%. Russell 2000 dropped 0.96%
  • Risk-off moves on the stock markets are accompanied by pick-up in US yields. 10-year US yield reached 3.36% – the highest level since mid-June 2022
  • Downbeat moods extended into the Asian trading session. Nikkei dropped 0.8%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 1.4% lower and Kospi plunged 1.5%. Indices from China traded lower as well
  • DAX futures point to a lower opening of the European cash session
  • New UK Prime Minister Liz Truss signaled that she will not confront with the European Union over North Ireland protocol in the coming weeks
  • Media reports suggest that China will extend lockdown in Chengdu city as cases in the area continue to rise
  • Chinese exports increased 7.1% YoY in August (exp. 13.0% YoY) while imports were 0.3% YoY higher (exp. 1.8% YoY). Trade balance for August came in at $79.39 billion (exp. $93 billion)
  • Australian GDP grew at a pace of 0.9% QoQ in Q2 2022 (exp. 1.2% QoQ). On year-over-year basis growth reached 3.6% YoY (exp. 3.8% YoY)
  • US dollar remains strong, supported by pick-up in yields. USD strength is especially clearly seen compared to Asian currencies. USDJPY jumped above 144.00 while USDCNY is closing in on 7.00
  • Cryptocurrencies succumb to overall risk-off moods with Bitcoin dropping below $19,000. Ethereum trades slightly above $1,500, dropping over 4% on the day
  • Oil deepens declines, erasing all of the gains made following OPEC+ output cut. Brent drops 1.7% and trades just slightly above $91 per barrel
  • Precious metals pull back under pressure from strong USD. Gold and silver trade around 0.4% lower at press time

US dollar leads on the FX market this morning. Strong pick-up in yields is providing support for the greenback, allowing it to reach multi-year highs against other major currencies.

DAILY ANALYSIS 06 september 2022

  • Indices from Asia traded mostly higher today. Nikkei traded 0.1% higher, Kospi added 0.2% while indices from China gained up to 1.2%. S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.3%
  • DAX futures point to a flat opening of the European cash session
  • According to Reuters report, Gazprom said it will not resume flows via Nord Stream until Siemens repairs all faulty equipment. Russian officials said yesterday that flows will not resume until Western sanctions are lifted
  • Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 50 basis point rate hike putting the cash rate  at 2.35%. Decision was in-line with market expectations . RBA expects inflation to peak later this year and drop to 4% over 2023
  • New UK Prime Minister Liz Truss is preparing a plan worth 130 billion GBP to lower energy bills. Part of the plan involves setting a fixed price for households with government covering the difference
  • Russia said it will ship more oil to Asia in response to a price cap proposed by G7.It will also consider setting up its own insurer for oil trade in order to circumvent Western sanctions
  • Japanese household spending increased 3.4% YoY in July (exp. 4.1% YoY)
  • Cryptocurrencies trade higher with Bitcoin gaining 0.4% and Ethereum advancing almost 4%
  • Oil is trading little changed today, holding onto gains made yesterday. Brent trades near $95 per barrel while WTI approaches $89
  • Precious metals trade higher, thanks to the weaker US dollar. Gold gains 0.4% while silver trades 1.1% higher
  • EUR and GBP are the best performing major currencies while JPY and USD lag the most
  • AUDUSD has been volatile in the aftermath of the RBA rate decision announcement but has managed to bounce off the 50-hour moving average and earlier-broken downward trendline in the 0.68 area.

DAILY ANALYSIS 05 september 2022

  • Russia announced on Friday that it will completely halt gas flows to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline indefinitely
  • European assets are set for a rough start of new week’s trade with EURUSD dropping below 0.99 for the first time in 20 years and DAX futures pointing to an over-3% bearish price gap at the launch of European cash session
  • Indices from the Asia-Pacific are trading mixed at the beginning of a new week. Nikkei trades flat, S&P/ASX 200 gains while Kospi and indices from China drop
  • According to Bloomberg report, Biden administration is considering restricting investments of US companies into Chinese technology companies
  • G7 countries agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil. Details are yet to be worked out but the measure will be implemented in December
  • According to media report, OPEC+ likely to leave output unchanged at a meeting this week
  • Germany ruling coalition agreed on a €65 billion deal to subsidize energy prices for consumers and businesses
  • Chinese services PMI (Caixin/Markit) dropped from 55.5 to 55.0 in August (exp. 54.0)
  • Australian business inventories increased 0.3% QoQ in Q2 2022 (exp. 1.5% QoQ)
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading mostly lower on Monday but scale of drop does not exceed 3%. Bitcoin and Ethereum trade 0.7% lower
  • Energy commodities trade higher at the beginning of a new week. Brent gains 2.2% while WTI trades 2% higher
  • Precious metals trade slightly higher. Gold gains 0.1% while silver advances 0.4%
  • AUD and NZD are the best performing major currencies while EUR and CHF lag the most
  • Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50) extends Friday’s drop triggered by Russian gas flow halt. Index is making a break below the 61.8% retracement of the upward move launched after US presidential elections in November 2020. The closest support to watch can be found near recent lows in the 3,400 pts area. Source:

DAILY ANALYSIS 02 september 2022

  • US indices finished yesterday’s session in mixed moods. S&P 500 jumped 0.30%, Dow Jones moved 0.46% higher while Nasdaq fell 0.26%. Russell 2000 plunged 1.61%
  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mixed as well. S & P / ASX 200 fell 0.10%,  Nikkei lost 0.06% while Kospi rose 0.30%. Indices from China struggle to find common direction.
  • DAX futures point to a lower opening of the European cash session
  •  Chinese city of Chengdu with population over 21 million implemented lockdown
  • Fed’s Bostic believes that the central bank must slow down the economy
  • US State Department said that Iran’s response to nuclear deal ‘not constructive’
  • Given recent weakness of the yen, Japan minister of finance Suzuki announced that will take action on Forex market if necessary
  • Goldman Sachs expects 75bp rate hike from ECB next week
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading slightly higher. Bitcoin rose 0.4% and Ethereum added 0.50%
  • Oil is trading higher. WTI trades above $88.00 per barrel, while Brent is approaching $ 93.80 mark
  • Precious metals rebounded after the recent sell-off. Gold rose 0.30%, while silver jumped 0.4%
  • EUR and CHF are the best performing major currencies while NZD and AUD lag the most
  • USDJPY pair jumped above 140.00, its highest level since September 1998 despite several hawkish comments from Japanese officials

DAILY ANALYSIS 1 september 2022

US indices had another downbeat session in a row. S&P 500 dropped 0.78%, Dow Jones moved 0.88% lower and Nasdaq declined 0.56%. Russell 2000 dropped 0.62%

Indices from Asia-Pacific followed into footsteps of their US peers and also moved lower. Nikkei dropped 1.5%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 1.7% lower while Kospi plunged 2%. Indices from China traded up to 1.5% lower

DAX futures point to a lower opening of the European cash session

According to Wall Street Journal, G7 will outline a plan to cap Russian oil prices on Friday

China has put Chengdu city with 21 million population under lockdown amid spike in local Covid-19 cases

Reuters quoted Taiwan Defense Ministry saying it has shot down Chinese drone near Kinmen islands. Report was later corrected to state the drone was unidentified, not necessarily Chinese and not necessarily military

A Singaporean-flagged tanker ran aground in the Suez Canal. However, ship was refloated within hours and supply chain disruptions, like those from 2021, were avoided

According to Reuters report, OPEC sees oil market surplus at 400k bpd in 2022, instead of 900k bpd that was reported by media yesterday

United States put restrictions on sales of Nvidia’s data center chips used in artificial intelligence to China and Russia

Chinese manufacturing PMI (Caixin) dropped from 50.4 to 49.5 in August (exp. 50.2)

Australian private capital expenditure dropped 0.3% QoQ in Q2 2022 (exp. 1.5% QoQ)

Cryptocurrencies are pulling back amid an overall increase in risk aversion. Bitcoin drops 0.9% and tests $20,000 area while Ethereum trades 1.3% lower

Oil is trading little change on Thursday morning with Brent trading near $95 per barrel

Precious metals trade lower amid USD strengthening – silver drops 1.2% while gold trades 0.2% lower

USD and AUD are the best performing major currencies while NZD and EUR lag the most

continued to move lower afterwards. Declines were halted near the $95 per barrel for now and oil is trading little changed today


  • In spite of launching yesterday’s session higher, US indices finished the day lower. S&P 500 dropped 1.10%, Dow Jones moved 0.96% lower and Nasdaq declined 1.12%. Russell 2000 dropped 1.45%
  • Indices from the Asia Pacific traded without a common direction today. Nikkei and S&P/ASX 200 dropped, Kospi gained while indices from China traded mixed
  • DAX futures point to a slightly higher opening of the European cash session today
  • Gas flows from Russia to Europe were halted as a 3-day maintenance of the only remaining Nord Stream gas turbine begins
  • Russian Gazprom said that it will completely halt gas supplies to French Engie starting from September 1, 2022 due to dispute over payments and will not resume them until dispute is resolved. France said that it is ready to Russian gas cutoff
  • Leadership congress of Chinese Communist Party during which Xi Jinping is expected to be awarded third term in power will begin on October 16, 2022
  • Official Chinese manufacturing PMI ticked higher in August from 49.0 to 49.4 (exp. 49.3) while the non-manufacturing index dropped from 53.8 to 52.6 (exp. 52.3)
  • Australian private sector credit increased 0.7% MoM in July (exp. 1.0% MoM)
  • Japanese industrial production increased 1.0% MoM in July (exp. -0.5% MoM)
  • API report pointed to a 0.59 million barrel build in US oil inventories (exp. -0.7 mb)
  • Oil is trading slightly higher after yesterday’s steep declines. Price drop was triggered by Iraq saying that it is ready to increase exports to Europe as well as by unconfirmed reports that US-Iran deal could be signed with 2-3 weeks
  • Precious metals benefit on US dollar weakness. Silver gains 0.5%, platinum trades 0.9% higher while gold trades flat
  • AUD and GBP are the best performing major currencies while USD and CHF lag the most
  • Oil prices plunged yesterday amid some more positive media reports on crude supply. Brent (OIL) pulled back from the $103.50 resistance zone. Drop was halted by the $98 support zone


  • US indices finished yesterday’s trading lower as moods remained sour following Powell’s speech on Friday. S&P 500 dropped 0.67%, Dow Jones declined 0.57% and Nasdaq moved 1.02% lower. Russell 2000 dropped 0.89%
  • Indices from the Asia-Pacific traded mixed during a session on Thursday – Nikkei, Kospi and S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.7-1.1% while indices from China traded 0.7-0.9% lower
  • DAX futures point to a slightly higher opening of the European cash session
  • White House Press Secretary said that she expects slowdown in jobs growth and overall employment data to “cool off”
  • Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that economic support right now is exceeding support policies from pandemic-hit 2020
  • According to a Bloomberg report, European Union is likely to meet its gas storage filling goals around 2 months ahead of a target. EU stockpiles are 80% full at the moment while it was not expected to happen before November 1, 2022
  • Japanese unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 2.6% in July (exp. 2.6%)
  • Australian building approvals plunged 17.2% MoM in July (exp. -2.1% MoM)
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading higher in an attempt to recover from recent declines. Bitcoin gains 1% and climbs back above $20,000 while Ethereum jumps 2.8%
  • Oil is trading a touch lower with Brent and WTI dropping around 0.2% each at press time
  • Precious metals are pulling back, although scale of declines is small. Gold drops 0.1% while silver and platinum trade 0.2% lower
  • JPY and CHF are the best performing major currencies while AUD and NZD lag the most
  • Cryptocurrencies are trying to recover from recent declines. Ethereum is approaching a key near-term resistance zone in the $1,600 area, marked with previous price reactions and the 50-period moving average (green line). Note that the upper limit of local market geometry can be found just slightly above the aforementioned zone



  • Indices from Asia-Pacific are trading lower at the start of a new week, reacting to the disastrous US trading session on Friday. Nikkei drops 2.5%, S&P/ASX 200 trades 1.9% lower and Kospi dips 2.0%. Indices from China trade 0.1-1.2% lower
  • European and US index futures are trading lower at the beginning of a new week. DAX futures currently trade almost 200 points below Friday’s cash close
  • ECB Schnabel said that rates must be raised even if it leads to a recession
  • ECB Villeroy said that he expects a significant rate hike at September’s meeting and that rates will get to neutral levels by year’s end
  • ECB Rehn said that the central bank is monitoring the exchange rate and that he is concerned about current euro valuation. ECB Kazaks also said he is not happy with were EUR trades
  • John Kirby, member of US National Security Council, said that US and Iran are closer to the deal than they were 2 weeks ago but some issues remain unresolved
  • Bloomberg estimates that if deal is reached, Iran may be able to quickly release oil to the markets as it has over 90 million barrels stored on tankers
  • Goldman Sachs expects the UK economy to enter recession in Q4 2022. The bank also lowered the 2022 UK GDP forecast from 3.7 to 3.5%. Forecast for 2023 was lowered from 1.1 to 0.6%
  • Chinese industrial profits dropped 1.1% YoY in the January-July period, down from +1.0% YoY for January-June period
  • Australian retail sales increased 1.3% MoM in July (exp. 0.3% MoM)
  • Cryptocurrencies are plunging on the overall increase in risk-aversion. Bitcoin trades 0.9% lower and drops below the $20,000 mark. Ethereum drops 2.2%  while Dogecoin trades 3.3% lower
  • In spite of an increase in risk-aversion, oil is trading higher. Both Brent and WTI trade around 1.2% higher at press time
  • Precious metals are trading lower amid USD strengthening – gold drops 0.7% while silver trades 1.2% lower
  • USD and CAD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and GBP lag the most

USD index (USDIDX) extends gain at the beginning of a new week. Index launched a new week with a bullish price gap and broke above the short-term downward trendline. USDIDX trades at the highest level since September 2002. 


  • US indices had a solid session yesterday with all major Wall Street benchmarks booking significant gains. S&P 500 gained 1.41%, Dow Jones moved 0.98% higher and Nasdaq jumped 1.67%. Russell 2000 gained 1.52%
  • Stocks in Asia traded mostly higher during the final trading session of the week. Nikkei gained 0.5%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 1% higher and Kospi traded flat. Chinese indices gained but scale of those gains did not exceed 0.2%
  • DAX futures point to a slightly higher opening of the European cash session today
  • Fed Bullard said that he sees rates increasing to 3.75-4.00% this year. Fed Harker said would like to see rates go beyond 3.4%, what would allow the Fed to relax a bit. Fed Bostic said that should the data remain strong, the case for another 75 basis point rate hike will be there
  • Reuters reported that ECB may soon begin talks on ending APP reinvestments. However, report note that decision on the matter is not urgent and unlikely to be taken at the next meeting
  • RBNZ Governor Orr said that he sees at least two more rate hikes in this cycle. Moreover, he said that RBNZ expect the country will experience technical recession
  • Josep Borrell, EU representative for foreign affairs and security policy, said that the US answer to Iran is a reasonable counterproposal. Contrary to earlier media reports, US did not outright reject Iranian proposal, nor did Iran reject US counterproposal
  • The United States canceled 26 flights from the US to China in September, operated by Chinese carriers. The move is a retaliation for China canceling some flights operated by US carriers due to Covid concerns
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading lower – Bitcoin drops 0.7% while Ethereum plunges 2%. EOS and Kyber trade over 5% lower
  • Oil is trading slightly higher this morning with WTI trading a touch above $93 per barrel
    • Precious metals pull back slightly amid USD strengthening. Gold drops 0.2% at press time
    • USD and CHF are the best performing major currencies while NZD and AUD lag the most

    Somewhat more optimistic comments on the progress in Iranian nuclear talks pushed oil prices lower yesterday. WTI (OIL.WTI) failed to break above the resistance zone marked with 23.6% retracement of a recent downward impulse as well as 200-session moving average (purple line).


  • US indices finished yesterday’s trading slightly higher, snapping a 3-day long downward streak. S&P 500 gained 0.29%, Dow Jones moved 0.18% higher and Nasdaq gained 0.41%. Small cap Russell 2000 jumped 0.84%
  • Stocks in Asia traded higher on Thursday. Nikkei and S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.7% each, Kospi moved around 1% higher and indices from China traded up to 0.5% higher
  • DAX futures point to a slightly higher opening of the European cash session
  • Morning stock market session in Hong Kong was canceled today due to storm
  • Russia is reportedly offering discounts of up to 30% on long-term oil contracts to Asian buyers in an attempt to offset looming plunge in oil exports to Europe
  • United States has rejected additional conditions set by Iran for return to nuclear deal
  • Bank of Korea delivered a 25 basis point rate hike – in-line with market expectations. BoK lowered 2022 GDP growth outlook from 2.7% to 2.6% and boost inflation outlook from 4.5% to 5.2%
  • New Zealand retail sales dropped 2.3% QoQ in Q2 2022 (exp. +1.7% QoQ)
  • According to data from UK Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, vehicle sales in the United Kingdom increased 8.6% YoY in July, marking a third month of increases in a row
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading mixed today – Bitcoin drops 0.4% while Ethereum trades 0.2% higher. Kyber plunges over 4%
  • Oil is trading a touch lower but Brent stays above $101 per barrel mark
  • Precious metals benefit from USD weakness – gold gains 0.4% while silver and platinum traded 0.7% and 0.5% higher, respectively
  • AUD and NZD are the best performing major currencies while USD and CAD lag the most
  • In spite of a disastrous New Zealand retail sales reading for Q2 2022, NZDUSD is trading higher today. The pair benefits from USD weakness and attempts to break above a key short-term resistance in the 0.6220 area, marked with previous price reactions and upper limit of local market geometry.