Daily Analysis 16 november 2022

  • US indices finished yesterday’s session higher following a jump triggered by lower-than-expected US PPI reading for October. However, part of the gains was later erased on reports saying that Russian missiles landed in Poland
  • US and other NATO officials say that it does not look like it was a deliberate strike on Poland, a NATO member country. It also remains uncertain whether it really was a Russian missile that overshoot Ukraine or Ukrainian anti-air missile that missed its target
  • NATO will, however, hold an emergency meeting today and it is expected that Poland will trigger Article 4, that means launching joint consultations on security matters
  • S&P 500 finished yesterday’s trading 0.87% higher, Dow Jones gained 0.17% and Nasdaq added 1.45%. Russell 2000 traded 1.50% higher
  • Asian session today was downbeat with major benchmarks from the region trading lower. S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.3%, Kospi moved 0.1% lower, Nifty 50 traded flat and indices from China traded up to 1% lower. Nikkei was outperformer with a 0.1% gain
  • DAX futures point a lower opening of the European cash session
  • Former US President Donald Trump has officially entered 2024 US presidential race
  • Prices of residential buildings in China dropped 1.6% YoY in October
  • Australian wages increased 1% QoQ in Q3 2022 (exp. +0.9% QoQ)
  • Japanese machinery orders dropped 4.6% MoM in September (exp. +0.6% MoM)
  • API report pointed to a 5.83 million barrel draw in US oil inventories (exp. +1.4 mb)
  • Oil and natural gas trade lower following yesterday’s gains made on geopolitical headlines
  • Precious metals underperform – palladium drops 0.6%, platinum trade 0.1% lower, gold declines 0.3% and silver trades flat
  • EUR and GBP are the best performing major currencies while JPY and USD lag the most

Brent (OIl) jumped on increase in geopolitical tensions and briefly traded above 200-hour moving average yesterday (purple line on the chart above). However, gains started to be erased as NATO played down the incident and said it was unlikely to be a deliberate Russian attack on Poland.


  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly lower today. Nikkei dropped 1%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 0.2% lower, Kospi traded 0.4% down and Nifty traded little changed. Indices from China traded mixed
  • Chinese real estate stocks traded higher today on reports that China prepares a rescue package to bail out property sector
  • European index futures trade slightly above last week’s cash closing prices while US index futures trade slightly lower
  • Fed’s Waller said that the recent lower-than-expected CPI report was just one data point and the central bank wants to see more data like that before altering policy. Waller said, however, that recent FOMC decision was meant to signal possibility of a 50 bp rate move in December
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that price cap on Russian oil will also benefit China, India and all other purchasers as it will give more leverage to negotiate lower prices
  • International Monetary Fund said that outlook for the global economy got gloomier on the back of tighter monetary policy, weakening momentum in China as well as energy and food crises stemming from Russia-Ukraine war
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda once again said that sharp FX moves are undesirable but also stressed that Japanese financial system remains resilient
  • US President Biden and Chinese President Xi are set to meet at G20 summit today. This will be the first in-person meeting of the two since Biden became US President
  • Russian President Putin will not attend G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia
  • Morgan Stanley expects the global economy to grow 2.2% next year. Bank expects the United States to narrowly avoid recession next year. Morgan Stanley also expects US CPI to drop below 2.0% by the end of next year
  • Goldman Sachs sees US core inflation to decelerate to 2.9% by the end of 2023
  • Cryptocurrencies traded lower on reports that some of dubious transfers were made out of FTX exchanges and on reports of troubles at more crypto exchanges. Bitcoin trades 3% lower and drops below $16,000 mark
  • Energy commodities traded without a common direction with natural gas trading higher and oil price dropping
  • Precious metals are pulling back as comments from Fed’s Waller provided a boost for USD
  • NZD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while CHF and GBP lagged the most

Recovery rally on GOLD took a pause today as US dollar strengthened on the back of Fed’s Waller comments. Precious metal is pulling back and attempting to make a break below the $1,760 price zone.


  • US indexes ended yesterday’s session in euphoric moods. The S&P 500 rose 5.5%, the Dow Jones rose 3.7%, and the NASDAQ closed the session at nearly 7.5% plus. The Russell 2000 gained 6.11%. Today, contracts indicate that investors will be looking to extend the upward move;
  • The atmosphere is also giving to investors in Asia. NIKKEI contracts are gaining 1.5%. Index contracts from China’s CHNComp and HKComp are trading nearly 3% higher;
  • DAX index futures point to a marginally higher European session opening. DE30 gains 0.12%;
  • Inflation in Germany came in line with expectations at 11.6% vs. 11.6% previously. The reading did not turn out to be as euphoric as the one in the US;
  • The ECB’s Nagel indicated yesterday that he expects German inflation to exceed 7% in 2023;
  • According to estimates by Patrick T.Harker of the Philadelphia Fed, PCE inflation in the U.S. will be at 3.5% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. Flat GDP this year and 1.5% growth next year is the baseline scenario, according to him. Harker emphasized the still-strong labor market, however, indicating that US unemployment could reach 4.5% next year;
  • Dallas Fed President Fed Logan said it may soon be appropriate to slow down to better assess economic conditions. He added that it may soon be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes, and that the process of cooling the economy is just beginning;
  • Kansas Fed President Ether George said that higher rates will be necessary for some time to convince households to retain savings, with gradual increases being beneficial;
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also referred to the lower U.S. inflation reading and indicated that moderation is “good news,” but “pausing is not the discussion, the discussion is giving way”;
  • The Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Trade Commission have opened an investigation into cryptocurrency exchange FTX. At the same time, the US branch of the FTX US exchange remains untouched due to the fact that it had to comply with the restrictive regulations of Gary Gensler’s institution;
  • Regulators’ intervention in the digital asset sector is increasingly likely. White House spokeswoman Jean-Pierre indicated yesterday that prudent regulation of the cryptocurrency industry is required;
  • Cryptocurrencies are recovering from recent declines although they are retreating from yesterday’s highs. Bitcoin is holding at $17,400 and is trading 2% lower. Ethereum is losing 3%. DYDX and Kiloshib are the best performers, with both cryptocurrencies gaining nearly 40% today;
  • Oil is trading higher today, near $96. Precious metals are continually climbing;
  • The dollar continues to weaken against other currencies. The EURUSD pair is already trading at 1,024.

Contracts on the US100 continue today’s rebound near 11,750 points. On the chart, we can see a double-hole formation at 10,700 points, where demand has already stopped declines twice. Yesterday the index rose nearly 7% and scored one of the best sessions in its 21st century history. Today the bulls are trying to continue the upward movement. The nearest support seems to lie in the psychological zone of 12,000 points. 


  • US indices finished yesterday’s trading lower, snapping a three-day winning streak. S&P 500 dropped 2.08%, Dow Jones moved 1.95% lower and Nasdaq slumped 2.48%. Russell 2000 finished trading 2.68% lower
  • Indicies from Asia-Pacific also traded lower. Nikkei dropped 1%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 0.5% lower, Kospi declined 0.9% and Nifty 50 traded 0.7% down. Indices from China traded up to 2% lower
  • DAX futures point to a slightly lower opening of the European cash session
  • US President Biden said that while he cannot guarantee that he will be able to get rid of inflation. He also said that he believes US economy will be able to have a soft landing
  • Fed Kashkari said that it is premature to talk about a policy pivot. Kashkari also said that inflation is not driven by wage growth but by supply chain challenges, stimulus programmes and Russia-Ukraine war
  • RBA Deputy Governor Bullock said that rates in Australia may need to rise more but RBA is getting closer to a pause in the cycle
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda said that inflation is Japan is likely to return below 2% next year. He said that it is too early to exit loose policy and that cutting negative rates further remains an option
  • BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, said that it remains underweight on US equities as recent correction was not deep enough to reflect deteriorating earnings outlook
  • BlackRock said it is also underweight on European stocks amid ongoing energy crisis
  • Binance abandoned a plan to acquire FTX following due diligence process and media reports on mishandling of funds and fraud
  • Cryptocurrencies are staging a comeback today, following recent heavy selling. Bitcoin trades 5% higher, Ethereum jumps 5.5% and Dogecoin rallies 14%. FTX trades over 35% higher
  • Oil is trading little changed on the day. Precious metals trade slightly higher with gold gaining 0.2%
  • EUR and GBP are the best performing major currencies while AUD and NZD lag the most

ETHEREUM halted recent sell-off in the $1,070 area and started to recover along with the whole cryptocurrency market. Coin is trading over 5% higher on the day but still around 25% week-to-date lower.


  • US indices finished yesterday’s trading higher. It was the third consecutive day of gains on Wall Street. S&P 500 gained 0.56%, Dow Jones added 1.02% and Nasdaq moved 0.49% higher
  • US midterms elections are behind us but we will have to wait for full results. Early results and estimates suggest that Democrats will retain control over the Senate. Republicans are seen as getting majority in the House of Representatives
  • No major moves can be seen on the markets in response to those early projected results as split power in Congress is an outcome that was expected prior to elections
  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mixed today. Nikkei, Nifty 50 and indices from China dropped while S&P/ASX 200 and Kospi gained
  • DAX futures point to a slightly lower opening of the European cash session today
  • Telegraph reports that UK Prime Minister Sunak may raise an income tax rate for the top earners
  • FedEx, a major US shipping company, said that it expects lower demand as demand trends reversed faster than expected. Company said that it had to defer a number of projects and cut vendor headcount
  • Chinese CPI inflation decelerated from 2.8 to 2.1% YoY in October (exp. 2.4% YoY). PPI inflation came in negative at -1.3% YoY (exp. -1.6% YoY)
  • API report on US oil inventories pointed to a 5.62 million barrel build (exp. +1.1 mb)
  • Overall, cryptocurrencies calmed after yesterday’s rout but major coins continue to trade lower. Bitcoin drops 0.2%, Ethereum trades 1.1% lower and Ripply drops 2.5%
  • Oil is trading a touch higher while precious metals decline slightly
  • USD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while NZD and AUD lag the most

Bitcoin briefly dropped below the $18,000 mark and retested lows from late-June. The coin bounced off the daily lows and recovered. However, it is trading more or less flat on the day.


  • Wall Street indices finished yesterday’s trading higher, led by Dow Jones. S&P 500 gained 0.96%, Nasdaq added 0.85% and Dow Jones moved 1.31% higher. Russell 2000 gained 0.55%
  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher today. Nikkei gained 1.2%, S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4%, Kospi jumped over 1% and Nifty 50 moved 0.5% higher. Indices from China lagged as jump in new Covid cases put WSJ report under question
  • Wall Street Journal reported that China considers steps towards slowly reopening its economy and abandoning strict Covid policy. However, the report claims that no timeline has been set. Also, Chinese officials continue to deny any such actions are planned
  • China reported 843 new Covid cases – the highest count in half a year
  • European index futures point to a slightly higher opening of the cash session on the Old Continent today
  • Telegraph reports that UK will sign a major natural gas deal with US in order to ease energy crisis at home
  • Japanese household spending increased 2.3% YoY in September (exp. 2.6% YoY)
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading lower with FTX crash driving market lower. FTX is trading over 20% lower today while Bitcoin drops below $20,000 mark for the first time in 2 weeks
  • Oil and industrial metals trade lower as continued rise in Chinese Covid cases hints that restrictions in the country are here to stay for now
  • Precious metals are trading lower amid USD strengthening. Gold drops 0.3% while silver trades 0.8% lower
  • USD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while CHF and NZD lag the most

Bitcoin drops 3% today and breaks below $20,000 mark for the first time in 2 weeks. The coin bounced off the daily lows and is now trying to climb back above 200-period moving average on H4 interval (purple line).


  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded higher during the first session of a new week. Nikkei gained 1.2%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 0.6% higher and Kospi added 1%. Indices from China traded higher with Hang Seng rallying 3%
  • European and US index futures trade flat compared to Friday’s cash close
  • Spokesman for the Chinese health commission said China is not abandoning its Covid-zero policy and will continue to take actions as soon as new outbreaks emerge
  • According to The Guardian report, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt plans to propose 60 billion GBP in tax hikes and spending cuts, with around 25 billion GBP coming from spending cuts and 35 billion GBP from tax hikes
  • ECB Villeroy said that it may take 2-3 years for inflation in the euro area to return to ECB target. He also said that ECB is not far from neutral rate and warned that tightening may slow in December
  • Apple lowered its iPhone production forecast by 3 million units. Company named Chinese lockdowns as a reason at first but later blamed it on the back of slowing demand
  • According to Wall Street Journal, Meta Platforms plans to launch large-scale lay-offs this week, that may affect thousands of employees
  • Chinese exports dropped 0.3% YoY in October (exp. +4.3% YoY) while imports were 0.7% YoY lower (exp. +0.1% YoY)
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading mostly lower. Bitcoin drops 1.2%, Ethereum trades 1.4% lower and Dogecoin declines 1.6%
  • Oil is trading lower with China commiting to zero-Covid policy being a reason. Brent drops 1% while WTI trades 1.1% lower
  • In spite of USD weakening, precious metals are trading lower at the beginning of a new week. Gold drops 0.6% while silver and platinum trade over 1% lower
  • EUR and NZD are the best performing major currencies while JPY, USD and CAD lag the most

WTI (OIL.WTI) retested the $93 area at the end of the previous week but failed to break higher. Crude launched a new week with a bearish price gap after Chinese officials said the country remains committed to its zero-Covid policy and will continue to take actions against virus outbreaks.


  • Fed delivered another 75 basis point rate hike, in-line with market expectations. Fed Chair Powell was very hawkish during press conference and dashed market hopes for a quick pivot
  • US indices slumped after yesterday’s Fed meeting. S&P 500 dropped 2.50%, Nasdaq moved 3.36% lower and Dow Jones declined 1.55%. Russell 2000 slumped 3.36%
  • US dollar gained while gold and other precious metals moved lower
  • Indices from Asia-Pacific also traded lower in response to Fed meeting. S&P/ASX 200 slumped 1.8%, Kospi moved 0.3% lower and indices from China traded 0.2-2.8% lower. Stock exchanges in Japan were shut for holiday
  • DAX futures point to a slightly lower opening of the European cash session today
  • According to the Times report, UK Prime Minister Sunak plans to extend windfall tax on oil and gas companies in order to collect around 40 billion GBP over a 5-year period
  • RBNZ Governor Orr said that central bank is focused on returning to a 1-3% inflation target range
  • Chinese officials repeated country’s commitment to zero-Covid policy after some unconfirmed media reports hinted that exit from the strategy may be near
  • According to Canadian media, Canada plans to introduce a tax on corporate stock buybacks and proposal may be unveiled as soon as this week
  • North Korea fired another ballistic missile towards the East Sea. Japanese authorities say that so far no damage from the missile has been reported
  • Cryptocurrencies trade higher today. Bitcoin gains 1.1%, Ethereum trades 2.5% higher and Dogecoin rallies 4.3%
  • Oil and precious metals trade a touch higher this morning
  • NZD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while CHF and USD lag the most

US500 gained in the initial reaction following Fed’s decision announcement. However, gains were erased during Powell’s press conference as Fed Chair was very hawkish. Index broke below 200-hour moving average and continued to move lower until it broke below 3,785 pts zone as well.


  • Three major US indices finished yesterday’s session lower, while investors look ahead to today’s Fed meeting. S&P 500 fell 0.41%, Dow Jones dropped 0.24% and Nasdaq lost 0.89%.
  • Mixed moods prevailed during the Asian session. Nikkei fell 0.05%, S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.14% lower while Kospi jumped 0.17%. Chinese indices traded over 1.0% higher.
  • DAX futures point to a higher opening of the European cash session today
  • BOJ’s Kuroda does not see the need to change current easing policy, while weakening yen is neagtive for the Japan economy
  • Japan finance minister Suzuki: We will not say when we will intervene but ready to do so
  • BOJ minutes, showed that policymakers are concerned weak yen could hurt households, small firms, services
  • NIO suspended production at two factories due to COVID restrictions
  • PBoC Governor Yi said that inflation in China remains subdued and expects reasonable range of economic growth
  • BOC Macklem says expects to hike rates even further, it will be difficult to  move inflation to 2.0% level,
  • North Korea fired an estimated 10 ballistic missiles, one of which landed less than 60 kilometers off South Korea’s coast.
  • Australian manufacturing PMI fell  to 49.6 in October from 50.2 in the previous month
  • New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate 3.3% (vs. 3.2% expected)
  • South Korean core CPI inflation in October jumped to 4.2% from previous 4.1%
  • API report showed a large inventory draw of -6.54 mn barrels, while markets expected small build
  • Energy commodities trade higher,  with WTI rising around 1.4% and trading near $90 per barrel
  • Precious metals trade mostly higher. Gold rose 0.25%, silver trades 0.4% higher and platinum jumped 0.50%. Palladium gains 1.0%
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading slightly higher. Bitcoin tested $20,500 level and Ethereum hovers around $1580
  • JPY and NZD are the best performing major currencies while USD and EUR lag the most

USDJPY pair pulled back below 148.00 level following fresh comments from Japanese officials. Still, may yen remains under pressure due to a widening policy divergence, as the BoJ maintained its policy of ultra-low interest rates while the FED is expected to raise rates further to fight persistent inflationary pressures.


  • The RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points in line with market expectations (current rate 2.85%). AUD weakened after the decision but erased losses ahead of European session. RBA action indicates that global central bank pivot is underway
  • The RBA indicates that hikes and inflation are limiting household strength. However, inflation expectations remain above target until at least 2024
  • Inflation in Australia is expected to peak at around 8% this year
  • Holiday and day off in Poland and Hungary. There are also elections in Israel
  • Tokyo Commerce Chamber urges Bank of Japan to change its policy – yen strengthens after these comments
  • Japan’s PMI print was 50.7 points – the same as in September
  • Lagarde indicates that the interest rate target has not yet been reached. At the same time, she indicates that the future interest rate level must ensure that inflation reaches the 2% target, but the risk of recession has increased
  • China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI index rises to 49.2 points with expectations of 48.5 and the previous level of 48.1 points.
  • Despite the economic slowdown and relatively low inflation, the PBOC is pulling money from the market. The yuan hits 15-year lows today.
  • Indices rebounded during the Asian session, despite yesterday’s declines on Wall Street. Hong Kong’s technology index rose more than 5% in the morning, the Hang Seng gained more than 3%, the Shanghai Composite rose nearly 2%
  • South Korea’s exports fall for October for the first time in 2 years, showing a continued weak outlook for Asian economies. Korea’s PMI is also below 50 points.
  • The dollar is weakening in the morning. The strongest currencies against the dollar are the EUR, GBP and CAD.
  • Indices on Wall Street decreased yesterday. The S&P 500 lost 0.75%, while the Nasdaq was lower by 1.03%. Wall Street was reducing gains after yesterday’s statement by Biden, who asked Congress to impose an additional tax on energy companies that refuse to increase production of oil, gas or other products, despite record profits

AUDUSD decreased immediately after the RBA’s decision but erased losses ahead of the European session.